An undefined population means the forecast is priced against whatever was easiest to count.
Write down which work units the forecast covers, and how they were identified.
Unreconciled work is capacity you will spend and did not price.
Run the governed-origin test across a representative sample of the population.
Excluding the unresolved band makes the forecast look tighter and the surprise larger.
Report the unresolved share as a number alongside the forecast.
Without it, the reader cannot tell whether the baseline is solid or merely tidy.
Add a single line: what share of the population reconciles to governed origin.
Capacity consumed by work nobody admitted is the most reliable cause of forecast failure.
Either load the unresolved band into capacity, or state that you have not.
A percentage with no mechanism cannot be defended, replicated or diagnosed when it misses.
For each saving, name the specific change that produces it.
If the case only works when the unresolved band is zero, you do not have a case.
Re-run the forecast at the high end of the unresolved range and report both.
A number only its author can rebuild is a position, not a baseline.
Hand the inputs to a colleague and have them rebuild it independently.
A forecast that cannot be wrong cannot be trusted, and cannot be corrected early.
Write the two or three observations that would mean the forecast is off, and when to check.
An assessment tells you how wide. Foundation teaches your people to close them without buying the read again.